{"id":980,"date":"2026-02-10T14:09:47","date_gmt":"2026-02-10T14:09:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/airis.org\/?p=980"},"modified":"2026-02-10T18:33:27","modified_gmt":"2026-02-10T18:33:27","slug":"three-horizons-framework-a-foresight-tool-for-strategy-and-governance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/airis.org\/es\/three-horizons-framework-a-foresight-tool-for-strategy-and-governance\/","title":{"rendered":"Three Horizons Framework: a Foresight Tool for Strategy and Governance"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Most strategy problems are actually\u00a0<strong>foresight problems<\/strong>.<br>Not because we can\u2019t analyse\u2014but because we keep mixing\u00a0<em>now<\/em>,\u00a0<em>next<\/em>, and\u00a0<em>later<\/em>. That timeline blur is why decisions loop, agendas overflow, and \u201calignment\u201d stays fragile. That is why the\u00a0<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Three_Horizons\" title=\"\">Three Horizons framework<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0 has become one of the most practical\u00a0<strong>foresight tools<\/strong>\u00a0for leaders and boards because it restores\u00a0<strong>temporal clarity<\/strong>\u2014the starting point of good governance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What is the Three Horizons framework?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Three Horizons framework is a simple way to separate three kinds of work that coexist inside any organisation:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Horizon 1:<\/strong>&nbsp;the current system that must keep working<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Horizon 2:<\/strong>&nbsp;the transition period where experimentation and trade-offs intensify<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Horizon 3:<\/strong>&nbsp;the emerging future that requires preparation and capability-building<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>It is not forecasting. It does not predict what will happen.<br>Instead, it helps leaders and boards&nbsp;<strong>use the right decision criteria for the right timeframe<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is exactly what many organisations struggle with today: applying Horizon 1 metrics to Horizon 3 choices, or expecting Horizon 2 transitions to behave like stable operations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Where does it come from?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The <strong>Three Horizons<\/strong> concept has two major lineages\u2014both relevant for AIRIS readers who care about strategy, governance, and decision-making under uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1) Corporate strategy: the \u201cthree horizons of growth\u201d<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>In business strategy, the \u201cthree horizons\u201d framing became widely known through McKinsey-associated work on growth and portfolio thinking\u2014often referenced through&nbsp;<em>The Alchemy of Growth<\/em>&nbsp;(Baghai, Coley &amp; White, 1999) and later McKinsey \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mckinsey.com\/capabilities\/strategy-and-corporate-finance\/our-insights\/enduring-ideas-the-three-horizons-of-growth?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" title=\"\">enduring ideas<\/a>\u201d on the topic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This strategy lineage focuses on balancing:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>core performance (today\u2019s business),<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>emerging opportunities (next),<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>and long-term growth bets (future).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2) Foresight and transformation practice: the \u201cThree Horizons\u201d of systems change<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>In the futures and systems-change community, the model was developed as a practical framework for navigating transformation\u2014particularly through the&nbsp;<strong>I<a href=\"https:\/\/www.internationalfuturesforum.com\/three-horizons?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" title=\"\">nternational Futures Forum (IFF)<\/a><\/strong>&nbsp;and practitioners such as&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/pdf\/26270405.pdf?refreqid=fastly-default%3A2ad0172fec53eb7a936170f522f3a420&amp;ab_segments=&amp;initiator=&amp;acceptTC=1\" title=\"\"><strong>Bill Sharpe<\/strong>,<\/a> along with collaborators including Anthony Hodgson and Graham Leicester.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bill Sharpe\u2019s book&nbsp;<em>Three Horizons: The Patterning of Hope<\/em>&nbsp;(2013) helped popularise this practice-oriented version, and later academic work framed it as a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jstor.org\/stable\/pdf\/26270405.pdf?refreqid=fastly-default%3A2ad0172fec53eb7a936170f522f3a420&amp;ab_segments=&amp;initiator=&amp;acceptTC=1\" title=\"\">\u201cpathways practice\u201d for transformation (e.g., Sharpe et al., 2016).<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For AIRIS, this second lineage is especially relevant because it treats Three Horizons not merely as strategy categorisation\u2014but as a way to&nbsp;<strong>govern change<\/strong>&nbsp;in complex environments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why leaders and boards use it<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The Three Horizons framework helps with a core governance challenge: organisations must do three things at once:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1) Protect the present (without becoming captive to it)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Boards and executives must sustain reliability: operations, compliance, safety, continuity, trust. Horizon 1 is legitimate, and often non-negotiable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But when Horizon 1 dominates the agenda, the future gets postponed indefinitely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2) Navigate the transition (where uncertainty is unavoidable)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Horizon 2 is where many strategies fail: not because the future is wrong, but because the transition is messy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This horizon requires:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>experimentation,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>trade-offs,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>capability-building,<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>and governance guardrails.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>It\u2019s a different leadership mode: less \u201coptimise\u201d, more \u201clearn and adapt safely.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3) Prepare for future viability (before it becomes urgent)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Horizon 3 concerns long-term relevance and legitimacy: new technologies, stakeholder expectations, regulatory shifts, energy transition dynamics, or entirely new operating models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Boards rarely regret investing too early in understanding Horizon 3.<br>They often regret realising too late that it had arrived.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Where it applies (real-world use cases)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>This framework becomes particularly useful in:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Board strategy discussions<\/strong>&nbsp;when operational urgency crowds out long-term stewardship<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Transformation programs<\/strong>&nbsp;where \u201cchange fatigue\u201d grows because timelines are blurred<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Innovation governance<\/strong>&nbsp;(how to evaluate pilots vs. core performance)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>AI governance<\/strong>&nbsp;(risk and compliance today vs capability and value tomorrow)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Energy transition strategy<\/strong>&nbsp;(reliability now, transition constraints, future system design)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>In short: the Three Horizons framework is a tool for&nbsp;<strong>long-term decision making<\/strong>&nbsp;that remains grounded in present constraints<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Related AIRIS reads<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>If this resonates, you may also enjoy:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/airis.org\/es\/cascading-foresight-through-the-organization-from-boardroom-to-frontline\/\" title=\"\">C\u00f3mo difundir la prospectiva estrat\u00e9gica en toda la organizaci\u00f3n: De la visi\u00f3n del Consejo a la acci\u00f3n en primera l\u00ednea<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/airis.org\/es\/how-to-navigate-complexity-in-todays-global-landscape\/\" title=\"\">How to Build a Culture of Innovation in Decision-Making<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>AIRIS Blog<\/strong>&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/airis.org\/es\/category\/anticipation\/\" title=\"\">(for more on anticipation, resilience, and decision-making)&nbsp;<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Other resources<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Three Horizons Framework &#8211; a quick introduction<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Three Horizons Framework - a quick introduction\" width=\"950\" height=\"534\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/_5KfRQJqpPU?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The Three Horizons framework explained by Bill Sharpe<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"The Three Horizons framework explained by Bill Sharpe\" width=\"950\" height=\"534\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/tHRyNnwiGz0?start=1598&#038;feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Most strategy problems are actually\u00a0foresight problems.Not because we can\u2019t analyse\u2014but because we keep mixing\u00a0now,\u00a0next, and\u00a0later. That timeline blur is why decisions loop, agendas overflow, and \u201calignment\u201d stays fragile. That is why the\u00a0Three Horizons framework\u00a0 has become one of the most practical\u00a0foresight tools\u00a0for leaders and boards because it restores\u00a0temporal clarity\u2014the starting point of good governance. What &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/airis.org\/es\/three-horizons-framework-a-foresight-tool-for-strategy-and-governance\/\" class=\"more-link\">Leer m\u00e1s<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> \u00abThree Horizons Framework: a Foresight Tool for Strategy and Governance\u00bb<\/span><\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":983,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41,42],"tags":[48,44,45,38],"class_list":["post-980","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-airis","category-anticipation","tag-airis","tag-anticipation","tag-foresight","tag-governance"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/airis.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/980","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/airis.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/airis.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/airis.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/airis.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=980"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/airis.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/980\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":996,"href":"https:\/\/airis.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/980\/revisions\/996"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/airis.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/983"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/airis.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=980"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/airis.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=980"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/airis.org\/es\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=980"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}